Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Excel to Purchase Rival Quintana for $2.45 Billion

(Bloomberg) -- Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd. agreed to buy larger rival Quintana Maritime Ltd. for $2.45 billion, including debt, to become the largest dry-bulk shipper listed in the U.S.

Excel will pay $13 in cash and 0.4084 share for each Quintana share. That equals about $26.48 a share based on yesterday's closing price, Hamilton, Bermuda-based Excel said today in a statement. The price is 57 percent above Quintana's close yesterday.

Quintana in the third-quarter operated 29 ships and is awaiting delivery of eight more over the next two years, which will increase its capacity by 55 percent. Today's purchase will make the combined entity the fourth-largest Panamax-size carrier company in the world, according to Lloyd's Register-Fairplay. Panamax usually haul 75,000-ton cargoes.

``From a strategic standpoint, we like it,'' said Doug Mavrinac, a Houston-based Jeffries & Co. analyst who has a ``buy'' rating on both companies. ``It increases the size of Excel's fleet significantly, lowers its average age, and it increases time-charter coverage, and therefore their cash flow visibility''

Quintana rose $4.78, or 28 percent, to $21.67, at 12:12 p.m. in Nasdaq stock market composite trading. Excel fell $1.20, or 3.6 percent, to $31.80 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.
 

Northwest, JetBlue, AirTran Post Losses on Fuel Costs

(Bloomberg) -- Northwest Airlines Corp., JetBlue Airways Corp. and AirTran Holdings Inc. posted fourth-quarter losses as rising fuel costs erased gains from fare increases.

Northwest said its deficit was $8 million after a $267 million year-earlier loss in bankruptcy, while JetBlue's $4 million loss compared with net income of $17 million. AirTran pared its loss to $2.17 million from $3.55 million.

Fuel is ``the principal culprit,'' said Dave Swierenga, president of consulting firm AeroEcon in Round Rock, Texas. ``The softening economy is clearly also having a negative effect.''

Today's results from the three carriers echoed those reported earlier by larger rivals including American Airlines and United Airlines, which also blamed fuel for blunting benefits from higher fourth-quarter ticket prices.

JetBlue jumped as much as 16 percent, leading U.S. airline shares higher, as its loss was narrower than analysts expected. The shares rose 77 cents to $5.71 at 12:19 p.m. New York time in Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading.

Northwest gained 56 cents, or 3.1 percent, to $18.50 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, while AirTran rose 29 cents, or 3.4 percent, to $8.75.

Northwest, the fifth-largest U.S. airline, and other big carriers raised fares six times last quarter to counter a 43 percent jump in average jet-fuel prices. The major airlines also doubled their fuel surcharges to $40 round trip. The surcharges are supposed to be temporary.

Northwest

Northwest's loss was 3 cents a share, narrower than the loss of 8 cents projected in a Bloomberg survey of nine analysts. Sales at the Eagan, Minnesota-based airline rose 3.9 percent to $3.1 billion.

Northwest said it would have broken even except for a $14 million pretax loss from selling its remaining holdings in commuter carrier Pinnacle Airlines Corp. The quarterly deficit was Northwest's first since leaving bankruptcy in May.

Spending on fuel rose 16 percent to $937 million, making it Northwest's largest cost and helping to boost operating expenses by 4.3 percent. Higher prices were partially offset by a drop in fuel consumption as Northwest retired older, less-efficient planes and reduced mainline capacity by 2.5 percent.

The surge in fuel is spurring calls by investors for airlines to consolidate and pare expenses. Northwest is considering a tie-up with Delta Air Lines Inc., according to Northwest's pilots union. The airlines have declined to comment on any merger talks.
 

Bank of America Affirms Plan to Acquire Countrywide

(Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp. said its purchase of Countrywide Financial Corp. is proceeding and the bank doesn't need more capital after last week's preferred stock sale raised almost $13 billion.

``Everything is a `go' to complete this transaction,'' Bank of America Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Lewis said at an investor conference today, referring to Countrywide. The Calabasas, California-based mortgage company rose as much as 8.6 percent today in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

Chief Executive Officer Angelo Mozilo agreed Jan. 11 to sell Countrywide, the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, for about $4 billion in stock to Bank of America, the nation's second- biggest bank by assets. Investors have speculated the bid might be revised if Countrywide didn't fulfill Mozilo's October vow to restore profit by year-end.

Countrywide posted a fourth-quarter net loss of $422 million, or 79 cents a share, compared with a profit of $621.6 million, or $1.01 a share, in the year-earlier period, the company said in a statement today. The loss was more than twice the 28 cents predicted in a Bloomberg survey of analysts.

The home lender rose 20 cents to $6.15 in 12:03 p.m. composite trading on the New York Stock Exchange as investors concluded Bank of America won't renege on the purchase. Bank of America, based in Charlotte, North Carolina, added 67 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $41.87.

Bank of America could have raised 2 1/2 times as much as it sought in last week's share offerings, Lewis told the New York investor conference today. The sale came with some of the highest yields in 15 years.
 

Goldman, Morgan Stanley probed on subprime

(Reuters) - Investigators are seeking information from Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Morgan Stanley (MS.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Wall Street's largest banks by market value, regarding their activities related to subprime mortgages.

In its annual report filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Goldman said it was cooperating with requests from governmental agencies and self-regulatory organizations for information about securitizations, collateralized debt obligations and synthetic products related to subprime mortgages.

Meanwhile, in its annual report filed with the SEC, Morgan Stanley said it was responding to subpoenas and information requests from governments and regulators concerning subprime and non-subprime mortgages.

The SEC filings came on Tuesday.

Morgan Stanley also said it was a defendant in lawsuits over its role as an underwriter of preferred stock offerings for mortgage lenders New Century Financial Corp (NEWCQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research) and Countrywide Financial Corp (CFC.N: Quote, Profile, Research). New Century is liquidating in bankruptcy, while Countrywide agreed on January 11 to be acquired by Bank of America Corp (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research).

Subprime mortgages go to people with poor credit. The U.S. housing crisis has caused dozens of mortgage lenders to go out of the business in the last year, and led to more than $100 billion of write-downs at banks worldwide.

Goldman and Morgan Stanley are among 21 banks sued on January 10 by the city of Cleveland. The city alleges that fee-hungry banks created a foreclosure crisis by offering mortgages that borrowers couldn't afford but which could be packaged into securities that investors could buy.
 

NY Gov working on fix for bond insurers

(Reuters) - New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer said on Tuesday he was working "extraordinarily hard" to aid troubled bond insurers, adding that he would do what is appropriate for the bond market, and the municipal market in particular.

U.S. states, counties and cities buy insurance from bond guarantors because it makes it easier for the tax-free issuers to sell their debt. The insurance companies guarantee that if there is a default, investors will be paid all the principal and interest they are owed.

But bond insurers' expansion into the now-melting subprime mortgage sector threatens the companies' top "AAA" ratings their business requires.

As a result, tax-free issuers around the nation are increasingly skipping insurance or having to pay unusually high interest rates on some types of short-term notes whose liquidity partly depended on insurance.

New York Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo has been trying to help the bond insurers raise capital to strengthen their balance sheets, but has warned this will take time.

The Democratic governor told reporters: "We are deeply immersed in this to do what we think is appropriate for the marketplace and for the bond market and ... for the municipal market in particular."
 

IMF to world economy: no one escapes U.S. slowdown

(Reuters) - When the U.S. coughs, the whole world still catches cold.

"No one is exempt from a global slowdown. That is why you call it global," International Monetary Fund chief economist Simon Johnson said on Tuesday as he updated the IMF's World Economic Outlook.

"It will be very hard for even the most effective counter-cyclical policy to keep any country from having some slowdown in these circumstances," he said.

The IMF has trimmed its estimate for world growth this year to 4.1 percent from its prior outlook of 4.4 percent, with still-resilient emerging economies seen growing at a rate of 6.9 percent from 7.8 percent last year. Even growth in China will moderate from a thumping 11.4 percent in 2007 to 10 percent.

"There are obviously linkages. I think that reports of decoupling have been greatly exaggerated. It is a question of what kind of linkages," Johnson told a media briefing.

World stock markets have swung wildly since problems in the U.S. subprime mortgage market surfaced in August, sparking a global credit crunch that has yet to fully abate. Investors have bet heavily that the United States will tip into recession and drag other economies in its wake.
 

Monday, January 28, 2008

PetroChina's 44% Loss Proves BRIC Premium Is Nonsense

(Bloomberg) -- The biggest slide in emerging-market stock valuations in a year and a half is proving that a slowdown in the U.S. economy still matters to Brazil, Russia, India and China.

Shares in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 12 percent relative to profit this month as the prospect of a U.S. recession pushed two-thirds of the world's equity indexes into so-called bear markets. The last monthly decline as steep was in May 2006, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Even the price-earnings ratio for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, the benchmark for U.S. stocks, didn't fall as much.

Companies such as PetroChina Co., the country's biggest oil producer, and Russia's OAO Lukoil show the threat of a global slump is shaking the confidence of investors who viewed developing countries as a haven from the U.S. PetroChina's 44 percent plummet since November erased about $400 billion, more than the market value of Microsoft Corp., the No. 1 software maker. Russian stocks are headed for their biggest loss in 19 months after money managers bought an unprecedented amount in 2007.

``The only way they could decouple would be for them to be on another planet,'' said David Dreman, who oversees $20 billion as chief investment officer at Jersey City, New Jersey-based Dreman Value Management LLC. ``We are the biggest buyer of their products and biggest user of their services, so if our economy slows down their growth rate has to slow down. There's no other plausible way.''

Record High

The MSCI index rose to an all-time high in October on expectations economic growth in the so-called BRIC countries, which accounted for half the world's expansion last year, would shield stocks even if the U.S. stumbled.

Last year's surge pushed the valuation for the MSCI above the S&P 500 for the first time since the Internet bubble burst in March 2000. Investors were willing to risk capital on profit growth in developing markets as their governments boosted currency reserves and cut debt.

Now, the price-earnings ratio is 15.35, down from 17.44 at the end of last year and an all-time high of 90.6 in February 1999, Bloomberg data show. Investors pulled a record $10.7 billion from emerging-market stock funds last week, according to data compiled by Cambridge, Massachusetts-based research firm EPFR Global.
 

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Corn, Soybeans, Wheat Fall as Slumping U.S. Economy Cuts Demand

(Bloomberg) -- Corn and soybeans and wheat fell on speculation the U.S. economy will slide into recession, triggering a global slump and damping demand for grains and other commodities.

The Federal Reserve today cut its benchmark interest rate the most in 23 years in an effort to prevent a recession. Even after the move, U.S. equities and commodities fell. Before today, wheat prices had doubled in the past year and corn and soybean futures reached records last week.

``The projected growth in consumption of grains is in question,'' said Darrell Holaday, president of Advanced Market Concepts in Manhattan, Kansas. ``World economies are going to retract. We thought this could happen, but some thought that the rest of the world is insulated from the U.S. economy. It was a nice theory, but today, you can say that's not true.''

Corn futures for March delivery fell 4.5 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $4.9375 a bushel at 10:58 a.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade, the fifth-straight drop since the most-active futures rose to a record $5.1925 on Jan. 15. Corn gained 17 percent in 2007 after rising 81 percent in 2006 on record demand to produce ethanol and feed livestock.

Soybean futures for March delivery fell 15.75 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $12.4825 a bushel in Chicago, after last week falling for the first time in seven weeks. The price on Jan. 14 reached a record $13.415. Futures gained 78 percent last year after U.S. farmers planted the fewest acres in 12 years to sow the most corn since 1944.

Wheat futures for March delivery fell 7.5 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $9.55 a bushel in Chicago. Even with today's decline, the price has doubled in a year. Wheat reached a record $10.095 a bushel on Dec. 17 as global demand outpaced supply.

Hedge-Fund Bets

Since the end of November, hedge funds as of Jan. 16 increased bets by 44 percent that corn futures would rise, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. Funds that buy commodities in indexes raised bets 14 percent. Open interest has climbed 8.9 percent to almost 1.41 million contracts since the start of the year, the highest in more than nine months.

Funds that track commodity indexes cut bets on higher soybeans to 176,461 contracts as of Jan. 16, down 5.8 percent from a record net long position a week earlier, according to the CFTC report.
 

ABN Leads Stocks Bears as MFS Sees No Repeat of '03

(Bloomberg) -- The last time the Standard & Poor's 500 Index was at least 10 percent below its previous high, in 2003, the world's biggest stock investors were bullish.

Not this time. Institutions handling $1.5 trillion, including Baring Asset Management's Andrew Cole, ABN Amro Asset Management's Joost van Leenders and MFS Investment Management's James Swanson, are holding or selling. They say stocks are riskier today than they were during that last correction in 2003, even though valuations are half as much.

``It's a much more dangerous game today,'' said Cole, 44, a fund manager who helps invest $48 billion at Baring in London. ``2008 is going to be a year of preservation of capital. We've got a lot of cash and we're not frightened to say so.''

Cole, whose firm favored shares over bonds or cash in 2003, said in an interview he's ``underweight'' equities this year because evidence of a U.S. recession is mounting. January's decline in the S&P 500, the benchmark for American equities, marked the worst start in the index's history.

The Federal Reserve's three interest-rate cuts since September haven't encouraged stock investors about the prospects for the economy. Equities are the cheapest relative to bonds since 1974, and still investors are shifting funds to fixed- income.

Steepest Drop

Stocks got even less expensive as the MSCI World Index dropped 3 percent yesterday, its biggest decline since 2002. The global benchmark slipped 1.1 percent today, its sixth straight decline and the longest stretch of losses since the period ended July 18, 2006.

Benchmark indexes from Hong Kong to London and Brazil retreated yesterday as concern grew that a U.S. recession will weaken global growth. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped today by the most since September 2001, and Australia's All Ordinaries Index tumbled the most since October 1989. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index was headed for its biggest two-day slump in a decade.

Investors pulled money from U.S. stock funds every month between May and November, the longest streak this decade, according to Investment Company Institute, which compiles data from 4,744 equity funds with $6.6 trillion in assets.

Net inflows to fixed-income funds in 2007 were the biggest since the start of the U.S. bull market in 2002, according to data from ICI, the Washington-based trade group for the mutual- fund industry.

``What we've been telling people to do is, `Face reality and take action.''' said David Darst, the New York-based chief investment strategist for Morgan Stanley's private banking unit, which oversees $700 billion.

Recession Forecasts

Last month, Darst recommended clients raise their cash holdings to 16 percent of assets. He told them to move money from equities to hedge funds that use futures to bet on currencies, interest rates and commodities.

ABN Amro Asset's van Leenders, 38, the firm's investment strategist, said he's daunted as earnings fall and predictions from Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and Merrill Lynch & Co. increase investors' conviction that the country is sliding into a recession.

Profit for S&P 500 members may have tumbled an average of 17 percent in the fourth quarter, according to Bloomberg data. The 2.5 percent drop in the third was the first quarterly decline since 2002.

End of Expansion

A jump in the jobless rate in December signaled that the longest expansion in consumer spending on record will end in the first quarter, Goldman said. The number of Americans who fell behind on mortgage payments rose to a 20-year high in the third quarter and home prices probably fell last year for the first time since the Great Depression.

Economic growth will slow to 1.1 percent in the first quarter, according to the median estimate of 65 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. In 2003, the U.S. grew at an annual rate of 2.5 percent while profits rose 17.4 percent a quarter, on average.

A correction is any time a stock index declines 10 percent or more from peak to trough. The latest for the S&P 500 was reached Nov. 26, when it fell 10 percent from its record in October.

Prior to that, the 15 percent drop in the index between November 2002 and March 2003 was the sixth correction in three years. Those were spurred by the collapse of the technology bubble, the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, a recession in 2001 and the dissolution of Enron Corp.

`Entering Recession'

The S&P 500 rebounded 39 percent between its 2003 low and the end of the year, marking the beginning of a five-year bull market.

``The macro picture right now is much weaker,'' said van Leenders, whose Amsterdam-based firm has $309 billion in assets. ``Then we were recovering from a recession, now we are entering one.''

ABN Amro Asset lowered its allocation to equities last quarter by raising cash and buying government and investment- grade corporate debt, he said. Swanson, the chief investment strategist at Boston-based MFS, sold a third of the shares he owned at the end of the year to boost his holdings in U.S. government bonds.

The S&P 500 fell 9.8 percent in the first 13 trading days of this year for the worst start since the index's inception in 1957. Stocks will drop further as the economy forces more homeowners into default and banks' losses on investments tied to subprime mortgages double to as much as $200 billion, Swanson said.

Benchmarks Drop

MSCI's world index slid 1.1 percent to 1,380.60 as of 3:03 p.m. in Tokyo, extending its decline from an Oct. 31 record to 18 percent. Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped 5.7 percent, and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 lost 7.1 percent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng plunged as much as 8.2 percent. India's Sensex index tumbled 12 percent when trading resumed after a halt to avoid breaching limits.

Yesterday, London's FTSE 100 Index dropped 5.5 percent for the steepest loss since September 2001. Brazil's Bovespa index plunged 6.6 percent, the biggest retreat in almost a year.

``Everything is being painted with a `dump-it-now' brush,'' Swanson, 58, said in an interview from Omaha, Nebraska. ``Seeing those red numbers on stock after stock after stock, it changes the psychology. It's very easy to give in to the doom of `Man, this is really now a recession and bear market and it's never going to get better.'''

Banks Extend Decline

Banks and brokerages in the S&P 500, last year's worst- performing industry with a 21 percent decline, have dropped another 13 percent in 2008. Telephone companies, energy producers and computer makers have fallen more than 12 percent since the start of this year.

New York-based Merrill, the biggest U.S. brokerage, had a record loss last week after writing down the value of its subprime-infected assets by $16.7 billion.

The stock-market slump hasn't been limited to the U.S. Benchmarks in more than two dozen countries including Japan, Sweden and Peru have plunged at least 20 percent from their peaks in the past six months, marking the start of so-called bear markets. This month alone, global stocks have lost more than $5 trillion in market capitalization, Bloomberg data show.

Stuart Fraser, who helps manage $42 billion at Brewin Dolphin Securities Ltd. in London, said he purchased inflation- linked government debt because ``central banks will be more concerned about rescuing the economy than worrying about inflation.''

Fraser, 61, also bought futures contracts and exchange- traded funds that track wheat and soybean prices. Wheat reached a record $10.095 a bushel in December and has doubled in the past year. Soybeans set an all-time high of $13.415 a bushel this month after surging 78 percent in 2007.

Long Volatility

Ashburton Ltd.'s Peter Lucas bought futures on the so-called VIX, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index that tracks the price of S&P 500 options. The gauge of stock market price swings almost doubled in 2007.

``Whatever happens this year, volatility will remain elevated,'' said Lucas, 42, who oversees $1.7 billion as chief investment officer at Ashburton in Jersey, Channel Islands. ``Being long volatility is a smart way of hedging equity risk.''

Relative to earnings, stocks are about half as expensive as they were in 2003. Companies in the S&P 500 are valued at an average 17.5 times reported profit, compared with 33 times at the start of 2003, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
 

ECB, BOE May Follow U.S. Fed Cut, Economists Say

(Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank and the Bank of England may have to follow the Federal Reserve and cut interest rates as the risk of a U.S. recession threatens to drag down a global expansion, economists said.

``From a European and a U.K. perspective, the Fed cut adds to the risk of more and quicker rate cuts,'' said Amit Kara, an economist at UBS AG in London. Kara, a former economist at the U.K. central bank, predicts four cuts from the Bank of England this year and two by the ECB.

The Fed today lowered its benchmark rate in an emergency move for the first time since 2001 after global stock markets tumbled amid signs the world's largest economy is sliding into recession. The move spurred a rally in European stocks, though failed to stem a decline in U.S. indexes.

The widening interest-rate gap between the U.S. and Europe may spur gains in the euro, worsening the outlook for an economy already showing signs of a slowdown by hobbling exports. German investor confidence dropped to the lowest since 1992 in January and European manufacturing growth slowed in December.

``This market has been calling for help,'' said Alberto Espelosin, who helps to manage about $12 billion at Zaragoza, Spain-based Ibercaja Gestion. ``The ECB should follow suit.''

The Bank of Canada, in a scheduled meeting, lowered its main rate by a quarter point today to 4 percent and signaled it will act again to shield Canada from the U.S. slowdown.

Yields Fall

Investors are increasing bets Europe's two major central banks will cut borrowing costs, interest-rate futures trading shows. The ECB's benchmark rate is currently 4 percent, while the Bank of England's 5.75 percent is the highest among the Group of Seven industrial nations.

The yield on the June ECB contract fell to 3.80 percent today from yesterday's close of 3.94 percent. On the June U.K. contract, the yield fell 3 basis points to 4.89 percent.

The ECB and the U.K. central bank refused to give away their intentions. The Bank of England said it has no plans to bring forward next week's meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee, which is scheduled for Feb. 7. ECB council member Juergen Stark declined to comment on the Fed's decision when questioned by reporters in Brussels.

The Swiss National Bank also declined to comment, as did spokespeople for the central banks of Norway and Sweden.

The euro, which touched a record $1.4967 on Jan. 23, rose 1.1 percent to $1.4619 at 6:08 p.m. Frankfurt time after the Fed's announcement. The pound climbed 0.8 percent to $1.9592.

`Forced to Act'

``If it becomes clear that this is merely a temporary fix, and the situation deteriorates further, then the ECB will be forced to act,'' said Ken Wattret, an economist at BNP Paribas SA in London.

While David Brown, chief European economist at Bear Stearns Cos. in London, predicted the Bank of England will cut its rate next month and the ECB will do so in the second quarter, he ruled out either following the Fed in reducing rates outside their normally scheduled meetings, as they did in September 2001.

``It's not their style,'' said Brown. ``European central banks tend to move by the calendar.''

European inflation at a six-year high of 3.1 percent, breaching the ECB target of just below 2 percent, is limiting policy makers' room for maneuver. President Jean-Claude Trichet said Jan. 10 that the bank is ready to act ``preemptively'' to raise rates to contain consumer prices.
 

U.S. Stocks Pare Declines; Exxon Retreats, Financials Gain

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell for a fifth day, the longest streak of declines in 11 months, as growing concern about the slowing economy prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by the most in two decades.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index pared its worst loss in five years after some investors were persuaded the Fed would continue cutting rates after its emergency reduction today. Exxon Mobil Corp., Microsoft Corp. and AT&T Inc. led declines. Bank of America Corp., Wells Fargo & Co. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. helped carry financial shares higher for the first time in three days after the Fed cut its benchmark rate by 0.75 percentage point.

``It shows that they're trying to stem the negative sentiment that's out there that there's a recession under way,'' said Ed Peters, chief investment officer at PanAgora Asset Management in Boston, which manages $25 billion.

The S&P 500 retreated 23, or 1.7 percent, to 1,302.19 at 12 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 179, or 1.5 percent, to 11,920.3. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 56.66, or 2.4 percent, to 2, 283.36. About three stocks fell for every two that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.

Growing evidence that the U.S. economy is slowing has dragged more than half of the world's biggest stock indexes into a bear market and wiped out $7.3 trillion in global stock-market value this year.

`Increasing Downside Risks'

The Fed cited ``a weakening of the economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth'' for its first emergency cut since 2001. Policy makers weren't scheduled to gather on rates until Jan. 29-30.

The U.S. market was closed for Martin Luther King Day yesterday. Stocks posted the steepest weekly drop since July 2002 last week after lower-than-estimated home construction, retail sales and manufacturing reinforced speculation that the economy is contracting.

Exxon, the largest U.S. crude producer, decreased $2.48 to $82.60. Chevron Corp., the second biggest, lost $2.96 to $80.50. Crude oil dropped to a six-week low, falling $2.39 to $88.18 a barrel in New York, on concern demand will diminish in an economic slowdown.

Microsoft, the biggest software company, retreated $1.04 to $31.87. AT&T slid 78 cents to $35.33.

Bank of America

Bank of America gained 87 cents, or 2.4 percent, to $36.84 even after reporting earnings that fell 97 percent. Fourth- quarter net income slumped to $268 million, or 5 cents a share, from $5.26 billion, or $1.16, a year earlier the bank said in a statement. Excluding merger and restructuring costs and a gain from the sale of Marsico Capital Management LLC, the company earned 5 cents a share, missing the 21-cent average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Wells Fargo, the biggest bank on the West Coast, rose $1.35 to $26.83. JPMorgan, the third-largest U.S. bank, increased $1.30 to $40.89.

The MSCI World Index fell 0.6 percent. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index of European shares added 2.4 percent.

The Nasdaq Composite today entered a so-called bear market, marked by a decline of at least 20 percent from a high. The S&P 500 and Dow average have both lost about 16 percent from their Oct. 9 records. The Nasdaq reached an almost seven-year high on Oct. 31.

Wachovia Corp., the fourth-largest U.S. bank, said profit fell 98 percent after writedowns for bad loans and mortgage- backed securities. Its shares added 15 cents to $30.95.
 

Blackouts a worry: Lehman

(Fin24) - Global analysts Lehman Brothers has expressed concern over the effect of Eskom's blackouts on infrastructure-related work in South Africa.


Wide-scale blackouts continued over the weekend as Eskom could not keep up with demand.


"Of concern are reports in the local press that the power cuts are now affecting infrastructure work related to the World Cup and industry in general," said the analysts in a research note.   


According to the energy supplier, the country needs to reduce its load demand by about 20%.
 

Monday, January 21, 2008

Business asked to cut power use

(Fin24) - Eskom has requested that business cut its energy usage by 10% to 15%, the energy supplier said on Monday.


Speaking to reporters after meeting in Midrand with top business leaders about the energy crisis in SA, Eskom CEO Jacob Maroga said "the biggest lever we can pull is reducing demand and the discussion this morning with the key customers is how we can collaborate in reducing demand".


Maroga said "voluntary saving targets" had been discussed with the 131 executives representing 38 companies present at the meeting.


He said Eskom had been talking with business about voluntarily reductions for some time.


"In some cases we've had some support where they've voluntarily reduced where they can"


He said: "We've put to them that where it's possible they can help us in reducing voluntarily.


"The quantum we are looking at is between 10% to 15%."


Maroga said he would aspire to a 20% reduction; "but anything between 10% and 15% is something we need to aspire to in terms of reduction.


"That reduction will relieve and reduce the probability of loadshedding."


 

Fujitsu reorganizes semiconductor operations

(Reuters) - Japanese electronics firm Fujitsu Ltd (6702.T: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Monday it would put its struggling semiconductor operations into a new unit, in a move that could smooth the way for partnerships with other chip makers.

Fujitsu's business building system chips, used in products ranging from digital cameras to supercomputers, has suffered from falling prices and the high cost of keeping up with the latest technology.

The company also said it would transfer development and test production of state-of-the art system chips to its Mie plant in central Japan from a technology centre in Tokyo, at a cost of some 10 billion yen ($94 million).
 

Northern Rock bids deadline set

(Reuters) - Britain set a two-week deadline for a private-sector rescue of Northern Rock, as it confirmed plans to convert its almost 25 billions pounds ($49 billion) of loans to the stricken bank into bonds in a bid to smooth a deal.

The financing package will tie the government to Northern Rock, Britain's biggest casualty of the global credit crunch, for years to come.

But it also increases the prospect of a private-sector takeover, which would avoid a politically damaging nationalization for Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who has seen his popularity slump in opinion polls in recent weeks.

Details of the plan sent Northern Rock's battered shares soaring on Monday. By 1105 GMT they were up 40 percent at 90.5 pence, valuing the bank at 380 million pounds ($746 million), still down over 90 percent since the end of May.

The financing package will be available to the three front-runners for a private-sector deal -- Richard Branson's Virgin Group, a rival consortium led by investment firm Olivant, and an in-house solution under new Northern Rock management.
 

L.A. Times editor fired, "significant changes" ahead

(Reuters) - The editor of the Los Angeles Times, James O'Shea, has been fired over a budgetary dispute only 14 months after he took over the post, the newspaper said on Sunday.

O'Shea, a veteran of the Chicago Tribune who was hired by the Times in November 2006, was fired by publisher David Hiller after he refused to carry out some $4 million in cuts, said the newspaper on its Web site, citing an unnamed source. The news was first reported by The Wall Street Journal.

In a separate statement late on Sunday, the newspaper said that like all newspaper companies, it was "facing major challenges in charting a course that will be successful for the future".

"In that vein, we will be making several significant organizational changes to put us in the best position to succeed."

It said as a result of these changes, O'Shea would be leaving the newspaper, and did not elaborate further.

O'Shea's firing comes one month after the paper's parent, Tribune Co, completed an $8.2 billion buyout led by Chicago real estate tycoon Sam Zell.

The deal restructured Tribune as an employee-owned company funded largely by debt.

The Times has struggled along with other media companies in an adverse newspaper advertising environment, and has cut staff and editorial resources in recent years.
 

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Oil Falls Below $90 for First Time in 4 Weeks as Supplies Rise

(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell below $90 a barrel for the first time in four weeks after a U.S. Energy Department report showed that supplies rose more than expected.

Inventories surged 4.29 million barrels to 287.1 million in the week ended Jan. 11, the first increase in nine weeks, the report showed. Supplies were expected to rise 1.25 million barrels, according to the median of 15 responses in a Bloomberg News survey.

``This confirms that the seasonal period of crude-oil inventory builds has begun and gotten off to a good start with a larger-than-expected build,'' said Eric Wittenauer, an analyst at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis.

Crude oil for February delivery fell $2.47, or 2.7 percent, to $89.43 a barrel at 10:56 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices touched $89.35 today, the lowest since Dec. 18. Futures reached a record $100.09 a barrel on Jan. 3. Prices are up 75 percent from a year ago.

Brent crude for February settlement declined $2.09, or 2.3 percent, to $88.89 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. Futures touched $98.50 on Jan. 3, the highest intraday price since trading began in 1988.

Refineries operated at 87.1 percent of capacity, down 4.2 percentage points from the week before, the report showed. It was the biggest one-week drop since September 2005 when Hurricane Rita shut refineries in Texas and Louisiana after roaring in from the Gulf of Mexico.

``The big drop in refinery runs is the most shocking number inside the report,'' said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York. ``It could be that we are seeing an early start to the next round of refinery maintenance.''
 

Boeing delays 787 by three more months

(Reuters) - Boeing Co (BA.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Wednesday it would push back first test flight and deliveries of its 787 Dreamliner by about three months, as it struggles with production of the new, carbon-fiber airplane.

The delay is the second major setback for the program in three months, after announcing a six-month delay in October.

Only a month ago Boeing's commercial airplane chief assured Wall Street that the plane was on track to meet its revised schedule.

Boeing said on Wednesday the first test flight of the plane would now take place around the end of the second quarter, compared with its previous target of near the end of March.

First deliveries of the plane are now scheduled for early 2009, rather than its previous estimate of late November or December this year.

Chicago-based Boeing said the new delay would not have a significant effect on 2008 results, but it would update its financial forecasts for this year when it reports quarterly earnings on January 30.

It plans to provide financial forecasts for 2009 when it reports first-quarter earnings at the end of April. The new delay is likely to have a greater impact on 2009, as that is when deliveries of the 787 are now scheduled to start.
 

Consumer prices data open door to rate cut

(Reuters) - Consumer prices rose modestly in December while industrial production was flat, leaving the door open for the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates later this month to shore up an economy that some fear is on the verge of a recession.

The reports released on Wednesday also showed consumer prices shot up last year at the fastest rate in 17 years, driven by soaring energy costs, while manufacturing growth was the weakest since 2003.

The data "underlines our view that we're on the razor's edge here, that we could be headed into recession," said Mike Schenk, senior economist with Credit Union National Association in Madison, Wisconsin.

Stock markets were mixed, with technology shares hurting after a disappointing earnings report from sector bellwether Intel Corp. Bond prices weakened while the dollar's value declined against other major currencies.

The Consumer Price Index, the most broadly used gauge of inflation, rose 0.3 percent in December, slightly ahead of economists' forecasts for a 0.2 percent rise, the Labor Department report showed.

Still, core prices that strip out volatile food and energy items rose 0.2 percent last month - in line with forecasts - following a 0.3 percent November increase.

For the full year, CPI jumped 4.1 percent, well ahead of the 2.5 percent increase posted in 2006 and the largest 12-month rise since a 6.1 percent increase in 1990. Core prices were up 2.4 percent for the full year, following a 2.6 percent pickup in 2006. That was the smallest 12-month rise in core prices since a 2.2 percent increase in 2005.
 

JPMorgan takes $1.3 billion writedown

(Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co said on Wednesday quarterly profit fell a worse-than-expected 24 percent as the No. 3 U.S. bank lost $1.3 billion on risky mortgages and set aside more money for rising losses on home-equity loans.

The bank quadrupled to $1.1 billion the provision it needs to cover continued problems on home equity and subprime mortgage loans. It also said credit card spending slowed in December, a sign the U.S. economy could suffer as cash-strapped consumers face rising food and heating costs while the value of their homes slide.

"We remain extremely cautious as we enter 2008," JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said in a statement. He said a worsening U.S. economy would boost consumer credit losses beyond current levels.
 

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Williams-Sonoma Shares Fall Most in 5 Years on Lower Forecast

(Bloomberg) -- Williams-Sonoma Inc., the U.S. gourmet-cookware retailer, fell the most in five years in New York trading after reducing its fourth-quarter profit forecast on an unexpected decline in holiday sales.

Fourth-quarter earnings per share, excluding some items, will probably be $1.12 to $1.15, compared with an earlier forecast of no less than $1.20, the San Francisco-based retailer said today in a statement. Sales at Williams-Sonoma's stores open more than a year fell 0.4 percent for the nine weeks through Dec. 30, the company said.

Customer visits to home-furnishings stores slowed more than Williams-Sonoma expected, and 2008 may be ``increasingly challenging,'' Chief Executive Officer Howard Lester said in the statement. The retailer cut prices and offered cheaper shipping at its Pottery Barn home-furnishings unit during the holidays to lure shoppers discouraged by falling house prices.

``Home furnishings retailers in general were highly promotional this holiday period,'' Laura Champine, a New York- based analyst with Morgan Keegan Inc. said in an interview Jan. 11.

Williams-Sonoma declined $2.30, or 10 percent, to $19.90 at 9:53 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange trading. It was the biggest decline since July 2002.

Three analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimated an average gain of about 0.8 percent in comparable-store sales during the November-December period. For the fourth quarter, 21 analysts expected profit of $1.20 a share, on average.
 

Soros Hires BlackRock's Anderson as Investment Chief

(Bloomberg) -- George Soros's hedge-fund firm named BlackRock Inc. co-founder Keith Anderson as its new chief investment officer, according to a letter sent to shareholders.

``Keith will assume responsibility for managing all investment activities at Soros Fund Management,'' said the letter, dated yesterday and signed by Soros's sons Robert, 44, and Jonathan, 37, deputy chairmen of the New York-based fund- management group. Anderson, 48, starts his job next month.

Anderson takes the helm after a year in which the $17 billion fund returned 32 percent, outpacing the average hedge- fund gain of 10.4 percent. In 2007, the senior Soros, 77, was more involved in Quantum Endowment Fund's investments than he has been in years. Money-making trades in the portfolio included investments in China and India and in the currency markets.

Robert, who stepped down at the end of July as chief investment officer but continues to manage money, also contributed to the outsize return.

Anderson is the fourth chief investment officer at Soros since the billionaire philanthropist decided to scale back risk at the Quantum Endowment Fund following the departures of star traders Stanley Druckenmiller and Nicholas Roditi in April 2000.

In addition to Robert, the other investment executives were Robert Bishop, previously a principal at hedge fund Maverick Capital Ltd., and former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. partner Jacob Goldfield.
 
 

U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Declined in December

(Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers unexpectedly fell in December, capping the weakest year since 2002.

Sales dropped 0.4 percent, the first decline since June, following a revised 1 percent gain in November, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Purchases excluding automobiles also decreased 0.4 percent.

Treasury notes rose and stock-index futures dropped as the figures underscored Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's concern that risks to growth are intensifying. A sustained slump in consumer spending brought on by falling property values and rising unemployment would mean the end of the six-year expansion, economists say.

``Consumer spending slowed down pretty dramatically'' in the fourth quarter, said Brian Bethune, director of financial economics at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts, who correctly forecast the drop in sales. ``We are kind of flying very close to a stall speed.''

Economists forecast retail sales would be unchanged, according to the median of 74 estimates. Projections ranged from a decline of 0.8 percent to a gain of 0.5 percent.

Yields on benchmark 10-year notes dropped to 3.72 percent at 8:55 a.m. in New York, from 3.77 percent late yesterday. Futures contracts on the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index expiring in March declined 1.1 percent to 1, 404.40.

Producer Prices

Producer prices in the U.S. also dropped in December, against economists' forecasts for an increase. Wholesale prices fell 0.1 percent after a 3.2 percent surge in November that was the biggest in 34 years, a Labor Department report showed.

For all of 2007, retailers posted a 4.2 percent sales increase, the smallest in five years. Purchases rose 5.9 percent in 2006.

``Growth stalled out at the end of the fourth quarter and into the new year,'' Joshua Feinman, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Asset Management in New York, said before the report. ``The economy will narrowly be able to avoid recession.''

Sales excluding automobiles were forecast to decrease 0.1 percent from the prior month, according to the survey median.

The drop in sales was led by a 2.9 percent decline at building-material stores, the biggest since February 2003, reflecting the slump in housing. Sales at clothing, electronics and sporting-goods stores were among those that also decreased.

Gas Stations

Purchases at service stations dropped 1.7 percent, which economists said reflected lower gasoline prices. The price of a gallon of regular gasoline in December averaged $3.01, down from $3.07 the previous month, according to AAA, a group representing motorists. Excluding gas, retail sales fell 0.2 percent.

Auto dealers saw a 0.4 percent decline in sales.

AutoNation Inc., the largest publicly traded U.S. car dealer, doesn't expect the nation's auto market to pull out of its slump until 2009, Chief Executive Officer Michael Jackson said from Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

The drop in housing and the slowing economy usually take ``30 to 40 months to work through,'' Jackson said in a Bloomberg Radio interview yesterday. ``So we've had declines in 2006, 2007 and 2008, but I'm feeling pretty good about 2009.''

Excluding autos, gasoline and building materials, the figures the government uses to calculate gross domestic product, sales increased 0.1 percent, following a 0.7 percent gain the month before. The government uses data from other sources to calculate the contribution from the three categories excluded.

Spending Outlook

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, is likely to cool rather than collapse in coming months as the housing slump worsens and hiring slows, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News earlier this month.

Spending will grow at an annual rate of 1.6 percent this quarter, down from an estimated 2.6 percent pace in the last three months of 2007, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News this month. Spending expanded at an average 3.5 percent pace per quarter over the past decade.

The continued gains, together with increasing exports, will help the economy avoid recession, economists said. Fed rate cuts will ensure a short downturn should one occur, they said.

Bernanke on Jan. 10 pledged ``substantive additional action'' to insure against ``downside risks'' to the economic expansion.

Investors are certain the Fed will lower the benchmark interest rate by at least a half percentage point following two days of meetings of Jan. 29-30.
 

Monday, January 14, 2008

Luxury Shoppers Shut Their Purses

(Businessweek) - Purveyors of luxury goods are finding that even their well-cushioned customers are feeling the economic pinch and putting their credit cards away
 
Luxury stores have finally caught the economy's cold.

For months, high-end retailers posted healthy sales increases, thumbing their noses at dismal reports of slumping home sales, risky mortgages, and rising energy prices. But now it looks as though even well-heeled consumers are pulling back. On Jan. 10, the upscale department store Nordstrom ( JWN) said that December sales at stores open at least a year fell 4% from last year, compared with an 8.7% increase in November. Saks (SKS), New York's Fifth Avenue luxury mainstay, also reported that its same-store sales were up a mere 0.8%, compared with a 25.7% increase in the previous month. And blue-blood retailer Neiman Marcus eked out a tepid 2.9% sales increase, vs. 5.8% in November and 8.5% in October.

"Everyone's shopping for the bare necessities, and people have stopped treating themselves," says Patricia Pao, founder of the Pao Principle, a New York retail consultant.

 

Less Moz miners in SA

(Fin24) - Fewer Mozambican workers were hired by South African mines in 2007, indicating a move away from the former
migrant labour system of old.


According to recruiting agency Teba, South Africa's mining industry recruited 44 849 Mozambican workers in 2007 - 3.6% fewer than the 46 528 recruited in 2006.


Of the total number of miners recruited last year, 36 702 were contract renewals, 7 950 were new hires with experience in the mining sector, and just 227 were cases of individuals who had never previously worked in mines.


José Carimo, regional director for Teba in Mozambique and Swaziland, this week told Mozambican newspaper Notícias, that the lower number of
Mozambicans recruited by South Africa's mines was primarily the result of South Africa's new migrant labour laws, which among other things restrict access to employment by non-qualified foreign workers.
 

Canada lifts SA steel duties

(Fin24) - The Canadian International Trade Tribunal, an independent quasi-judicial body, has lifted anti-dumping duties
on hot-rolled steel plate from South Africa and Russia, saying they aren't likely to harm Canadian steel producers.


However, the tribunal ruled that anti-dumping duties would continue on hot-rolled steel plate from China.


It stated that the "dumping of hot-rolled steel plate from South Africa and Russia is unlikely to result in injury or
retardation."


"The Canada Border Services Agency will therefore no longer impose anti-dumping duties on these products," the tribunal added.


Dumping not on


Under international trade rules, dumping occurs when products are exported or sold in another country at prices below their cost in the producer's home market.


The Canadian press said the anti-dumping duties were imposed after Hamilton-based Stelco, backed by other Canadian steel producers, brought a complaint in 1997 against several countries comprising South Africa, Russia and China, Mexico and Poland.


Since then, all of Canada's major publicly traded steel producers - Stelco, Ipsco, Algoma and Dofasco - have been bought by foreign companies and taken private, although they continue to operate.


Hot-rolled carbon steel is used in making such things as rail cars, fuel storage tanks, construction machinery, agricultural equipment, bridges, industrial buildings, high-rise office towers, automobiles and truck parts and ships.


Read more at Fin24

China Mobile Apple talks over

(Fin24) - China Mobile Limited says that it has discontinued talks with Apple over the launch of iPhone handsets in China.


"We have held talks with Apple to launch the iPhone device in China. However, those talks have ended," China Mobile spokesperson Rainie Lei said. She declined to say why the talks ended.


China Mobile Chairperson Wang Jianzhou said in November last year that the two companies had been unable to agree on a revenue-sharing model.


Calls to Cupertino, California-based Apple were not answered today.
 

Metorex plunge may hurt deals

(Fin24) - The share price of Metorex is plunging inexplicably and has fallen 38% from its 12-month high at a time of bullish conditions for two of its main products - copper and gold.


The fall is particularly embarrassing in terms of Metorex's bid to minority shareholders in Copper Resources Corporation (CRC) which has just been extended for the second time to January 18.


CRC owns three copper projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) with resources and reserves totalling up to 2.4 million tonnes of contained copper metal.


Metorex bought 38.7% of CRC in July last year plus a 5% stake in its 75% held subsidiary MMK from the Forrest group for R600m. The Metorex share price stood around 2 400c at the time and it subsequently rose to an all-time high of 2 950c.


The CRC share price at the time sat around 87p and, when Metorex pitched its equity offer to the CRC minorities, it also included an alternative cash offer of 125p per CRC share.


But Metorex shares hit 1 725c today before recovering to around 1 830c while CRC shares have risen to around 160p.


Read more at Fin24

Sovereign Bancorp to take $1.58 billion charge

(Reuters) - Sovereign Bancorp Inc (SOV.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the second-largest U.S. savings and loan, said on Monday it expects to take $1.58 billion in fourth-quarter charges, hurt by worsening credit quality and a tough mortgage environment.

The Philadelphia-based thrift expects to write down $1.4 billion of goodwill. This includes $600 million related to consumer lending, which has been hurt by weaker credit and a decision to stop making some auto loans.

It also includes $800 million related to operations in the New York area. Sovereign in June 2006 paid $3.6 billion for Brooklyn, New York's Independence Community Bank Corp, and said revenue and deposit growth have been lower than expected.

Results also reflect a $180 million write-down related to preferred stock investments in mortgage financiers Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research).

Sovereign also said it will set aside $738 million for bad loans and leases, up from $650 million in the prior quarter. It also plans $27 million in charges related to financings to two mortgage companies that have defaulted.

Chief Executive Joseph Campanelli in a statement said Sovereign remains a "fundamentally sound financial institution," despite market and credit pressures. The company operates about 750 banking offices in eight Northeastern U.S. states, and ended September with $86.6 billion in assets.
 

U.S. Stock Futures Rise on IBM Profit, Rate-Cut Speculation

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures rallied after International Business Machines Corp.'s profit topped analysts' estimates and investors bet on larger interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

IBM, the world's biggest computer-services provider, rose on results that were boosted by international growth. Apple Inc. climbed after Bank of America Corp. increased its earnings forecast for the maker of the iPod media player. Barrick Gold Corp. and Newmont Mining Corp. advanced as gold reached a record.

The gains today signaled that the market may rebound from the worst start for a year since 1982. Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures expiring in March added 10 to 1,417.8 as of 9:16 a.m. in New York. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 111 to 12,772 and Nasdaq 100 Index futures increased 24.75 to 1,950.25.

``One of the driving forces behind weakness in the markets had been the theory corporate earnings would be squeezed with the global slowdown,'' said Tim Smalls, head of U.S. trading at Execution LLC in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``IBM telling you they're doing well is going to take a little bit of the pressure off.''

U.S. stocks were poised to rebound from the worst start for a year since 1982 as Fed fund futures showed traders see a 44 percent probability the central bank will lower its benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage point to boost economic growth at its Jan. 30 meeting. Before Jan. 11, traders saw no chance of a three-quarter point cut.
 

Friday, January 11, 2008

Rock raises £2.25bn from mortgage sale

(FT.com) - Northern Rock expects to raise £2.25bn through the sale of its portfolio of Lifetime home equity release mortgages to JPMorgan Chase at a premium to its balance sheet value.
 
The move is likely to be seen as an encouraging sign that buyers are beginning to emerge for mortgage assets owned by the stricken bank that are regarded as good quality.
 

However it may raise concerns that Northern Rock is selling off the better quality assets, leaving the government and shareholders with less attractive portfolios.

A spokesman for Northern Rock said: "It's not a question of degrees of quality. This was an opportunity to sell a relatively small percentage of our assets."

In another twist in the Northern Rock saga, trustees of the pension scheme have asked the company to place members on the same footing as depositors by setting aside enough mortgage assets to guarantee that all promised benefits could be fully paid if the bank becomes insolvent.

The move, detailed in a letter to scheme members sent on Friday, puts yet more pressure on a government that has already extended more than £25bn in loans to keep Northern Rock solvent.

But the bank would be unable to meet the trustees' request to pledge assets as security without the permission of its regulator and the guarantors of its loans - the Financial Services Authority, Bank of England and the Treasury.

In the letter, Sir David Chapman, chairman of the Trustees, notes that if Northern Rock were to become insolvent immediately "significant additional funds would need to be paid into the scheme" of around £150m to £200m.

Last October, as the lender's woes mounted, Trustees moved to shift the scheme's assets into much less risky areas. Nearly half is currently invested in index-linked government gilts.

But Friday's sale of the mortgage portfolio may raise hopes at the Treasury, the FSA and the Bank that a private sale may still be possible.

However, among leading shareholders concerns that the bank is selling the lender's most desirable assets may rise.

The sale value of £2.2bn, represents a premium of 2.25 per cent or about £50m over the balance sheet value, bringing the total cash proceeds from the agreed sale to £2.25bn. The Lifetime assets comprise about 2 per cent of the company's total assets.

Andy Kuipers, new chief executive, welcomed the sale.

"This...is a positive development in the company's ongoing strategic review," he said in a statement.

"It illustrates the quality of our assets, which has enabled us to achieve a sale at a premium despite continuing difficult financial markets, and will allow the company to reduce its debt to the Bank of England."

Read more at FT.com

FTSE falls amid global weakness, food stocks weigh

(Reuters) - Britain's top share index fell on Friday amid global weakness in equities fuelled by fears of more subprime-related writedowns and as food stocks suffered from a brokerage downgrade and profit-warning talk.

Britain's FTSE 100 .FTSE shed 0.3 percent to end at 6,202.0 points, while the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 benchmark hit its lowest level in over a year before ending down 0.5 percent.

The New York Times reported Merrill Lynch (MER.N: Quote, Profile, Research) is expected to suffer $15 billion in losses stemming from soured mortgage investments, reminding investors the jury was still out on the extent of the fallout of the credit crisis.

This came on the heels of a profit warning from American Express (AXP.N: Quote, Profile , Research).

Worries over global growth pushed the price of crude further off record highs hit last week, taking oil stocks along with it. BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 0.7 percent and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile, Research) shed 1.6 percent as crude slipped to near $93 a barrel.

Unilever (ULVR.L: Quote, Profile, Research) was among the biggest percentage losers on the index after Morgan Stanley downgraded its rating on the consumer goods giant late on Thursday to "underweight" from "equal weight".

Elsewhere in the sector Reckitt Benckiser (RB.L: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 3.4 percent and Associated British Foods (ABF.L: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 0.9 percent. Cadbury (CBRY.L: Quote, Profile, Research) shed nearly 3 percent, with traders citing market talk the confectionery group would issue a profit warning. The company had no immediate comment.
 

Merrill seen suffering $15 billion loss: report

(Reuters) - Merrill Lynch (MER.N: Quote, Profile, Research) is expected to suffer $15 billion in losses stemming from soured mortgage investments, almost twice the company's original estimate, the New York Times reported on Friday.

The losses were prompting the company to raise additional capital from an outside investor, the newspaper said in a report on its Web site. Merrill is expected to disclose the huge write-down when it reports earnings next week, the New York Times said, citing people who had been briefed on the company's plans.

The loss exceeds the $12 billion hit that many Wall Street analysts had forecast, the newspaper said.
 

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Wal-Mart Beats Estimates; Limited Brands' Sales Fall

(Bloomberg) -- Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, said December sales climbed 2.4 percent, higher than analysts' estimates. Limited Brands Inc. cut its fourth-quarter profit forecast after sales declined during what may have been the worst holiday season since 2002.

Women's clothing retailers AnnTaylor Stores Corp., Chico's FAS Inc., and Cato Corp. also projected earnings less than analysts' estimates after December sales at stores open at least a year fell.

A drop in customer visits at American Eagle Outfitters Inc. and other retailers have hurt profit. Consumers facing $3- a-gallon gasoline and the worst housing market in 27 years reined in spending and only bought items on sale. Stores typically count on November and December for about a fifth of their annual sales.

``It's a very challenging period for the retailers,'' Steven Baumgarten, an analyst at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia, with $77 billion in assets including retailers' shares, said on Jan. 8. ``The sales numbers obviously don't look that great, and the promotional activity in most cases was above last year, so margins are probably going to suffer.''

The International Council of Shopping Centers on Jan. 8 said same-store sales in November and December probably increased ``a little under'' its 2.5 percent forecast. Same- store sales are considered a key measure of a retailer's performance because they exclude locations that have recently opened or closed.

Food, Drugs

Discounters benefited as cash-strapped consumers sought out lower prices. Wal-Mart's December gains were driven by sales of food, prescription drugs and consumer electronics. The results were within the company's forecast of a 1 percent to 3 percent increase and beat analysts' estimates of a 1.8 percent rise.

Costco Wholesale Corp., the largest U.S. warehouse-club chain, said December sales at stores open at least a year rose 7 percent, exceeding analysts' projections for a 5.5 percent gain. TJX Cos., which sells designer clothes at discounted prices at its Marshalls chain, raised its fourth-quarter forecast.

American Eagle, the U.S. retailer of clothes for 15- to 25-year-olds, fell 6 cents to $17.72 yesterday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Limited Brands, based in Columbus, Ohio, dropped 4 cents to $15.69. Wal-Mart, based in Bentonville, Arkansas, climbed 93 cents, or 2 percent, to $46.90.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Retailing Index rose less than 1 percent to 375.15 yesterday. The index has dropped 8.5 percent this year through yesterday following an 18 percent decline in 2007.

Macy's Falls

Macy's Inc., the second-largest department-store company, said sales dropped 7.9 percent, missing analysts' estimate for 6.4 percent fall.

``Macroeconomic trends led customers to spend cautiously for the holiday,'' Chief Executive Officer Terry Lundgren said in a statement.

Gap Inc., the biggest U.S. clothing retailer, said same- store sales fell 6 percent, more than double Retail Metrics LLC's estimate for a 2.4 percent decline. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. said comparable-store sales retreated 2 percent. Analysts estimated a 0.9 percent decline.

December sales may have gained at a pace slower than the council's 1.5 percent estimate as shoppers waiting for discounts spent less at the beginning of the month, Michael Niemira, the ICSC's chief economist, said last week.

A calendar shift moved a week of holiday sales into November from December, hurting last month's results and helping November post a 3.5 percent increase.
 

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Rates yet to halt spending

(Fin24) -  Latest retail sales figures show consumers are   struggling to shell out money for big-ticket items as interest  rates begin to bite.


However, economists point out that retail sales growth is calculated off a high base and credit spending remains robust. 


The retail sales figures for October show that there was an 8.1% decline in sales of household furniture, appliances and equipment in  the three months from August to October compared with the same three months last year.


The Reserve Bank Quarterly Bulletin also says there was a decline year-on-year in real household expenditure on durable goods.  


The bulletin shows overall consumption spending cooled down to a fairly sedate 4.5% in the third quarter of last year from a robust 8.25% for the whole of 2006. 
 

S.Africa Dec new vehicle sales fall 15.1 pct yr/yr

(Reuters) - South African new vehicle sales dropped 15.1 percent year-on-year in December on higher interest rates and tighter credit laws, and should moderate further this year, the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers said on Wednesday.

NAAMSA said new vehicle sales fell to 41,813 units in December compared to the same month in 2006.

New sales incorporating Associated Motor Holdings were 44,926 vehicles in December compared to 54,874 over the same period the year before.

AMH is an importing and distributing company whose data is reported separately because it does not provide some of the vehicle sale breakdowns required by NAAMSA.

New vehicle sales during the whole of 2007 fell by 5.2 percent to 612,707 compared to 2006, after registering four successive record years previously, NAAMSA added.

"During 2007, the automotive industry was buffeted by a series of negative events (including) progressive increases in interest rates, the introduction of the National Credit Legislation ... which introduced stricter disciplines governing the granting of credit," it said.
 

King Likely to Win New Term Leading Bank of England

(Bloomberg) -- Prime Minister Gordon Brown was speechless when asked yesterday whether he would reappoint Mervyn King as governor of the Bank of England, silently nodding toward Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling to repeat the promise of a decision in ``the next few weeks.''

When the time does come, Brown will probably say yes.

Brown has little choice but to overlook King's delay in acting on the financial crisis at Northern Rock Plc last year, say former colleagues, economists and lawmakers from the three main parties. They say the political costs of pushing King aside would outweigh any benefit.
 

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Eskom may quit South Dunes

(Fin24) - Another large tranche of export entitlement through the Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) will soon become available for black empowered coal companies if Eskom Enterprises pulls out of the South Dunes Coal Terminal (SDCT).


Eskom Enterprises is a 50% shareholder in the SDCT which has a six million tonnes (Mt) entitlement to export through the RBCT in terms of its R1.2bn phase five expansion.


It is understood that Eskom is reviewing its participation in the SDCT and is likely to decide to opt out meaning its 3Mt entitlement will be up for grabs.


There should be no shortage of bidders for that entitlement. When the RBCT last year offered 9Mt/year of "subscription quota" coal in terms of the phase five expansion it received 26 applications for a total of 26.85Mt/year.


Of those, 18 applications totalling 19Mt met all the pre-qualification criteria but only eight companies were successful.
 

Gold Climbs to Record on Higher Oil Prices, Weakening Dollar

(Bloomberg) -- Gold rose to a record as higher crude oil and a weaker dollar spurred demand for the metal as a hedge against inflation.

Gold is off to its best start to the year since 1980. Oil rose to a record $100 last week, U.S. warships were confronted by Iranian boats over the weekend, and the dollar today fell against 15 of 16 major currencies.

``The U.S. dollar is weakening and oil has picked back up,'' said David Thurtell, a metals analyst at BNP Paribas SA in London. ``There are a lot of supportive reasons to buy and not many reasons to sell.''

Gold for immediate delivery rose as much as $17.84, or 2.1 percent, to $876 an ounce in London, exceeding the previous record of $868.89 set Jan. 3. The metal traded at $874.90 as of 12 p.m. in London. Gold for February delivery rose as much as $16.80, or 2 percent, to $878.80 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The metal last reached an all-time high in New York in 1980, when the dollar was weakening, oil prices were rising and the U.S. and Iran were at loggerheads. U.S. Navy warships were approached by Iranian ``fast boats'' in the Straits of Hormuz on Jan. 6, the U.S. Defense Department said yesterday. The straits are the sea route for about a quarter of the world's oil.
 

U.S. Stocks Climb for Second Day; Chevron, Bear Stearns Advance

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks advanced the most in two weeks, led by miners and energy producers, after gold rose to a record and oil rebounded from its biggest decline in more than a month.

Chevron Corp., the second-largest U.S. energy company, and Schlumberger Ltd., the world's biggest oilfield-services provider, climbed. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. and Newmont Mining Corp. rallied as prices for precious and industrial metals increased. Bear Stearns Cos. gained after a person with knowledge of the matter said Chief Executive Officer James Cayne plans to resign.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index increased 5.45, or 0.4 percent, to 1,420.62 as of 9:39 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 24.22, or 0.2 percent, to 12,851.71. The Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 2.34, or 0.1 percent, to 2,501.8. About 13 shares climbed for every five that fell on the New York Stock Exchange.

Shares rose in Europe and Asia, led by miners and telephone companies. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index of European shares added 0.9 percent for its first gain of the year.

``With oil where it is right now between $90 and $100, the oil companies do pretty darn well and they still look relatively inexpensive,'' Jeffrey Saut, who helps oversee about $190 billion as chief investment strategist at Raymond James & Associates, said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

U.S. equities also got a boost as the cost for banks to borrow in dollars and euros slid, signaling efforts by central banks to restore confidence in money markets is working. Investors will get further clues on the outlook for economic growth and interest rates from a private report today that may show pending home sales fell for the first time in three months.
 

Economic worries mar tech show's glitz

(Reuters) - The world's major technology companies are trying to convince consumers they need an expensive, digitally connected home with the latest high-tech gadgets.

But there's a problem: an increasing number of consumers are having trouble just paying for the roof over the heads, much less a 150-inch television.

Few company executives at the annual Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas this week can avoid questions about the state of the economy, and the combination of a surge in the U.S. jobless rate, oil around $100 and a worsening credit and housing crisis has many on edge.

"The fourth quarter is full of strange, unanswerable situations related to unemployment, related to GDP, related to everything else," Sony Corp (6758.T: Quote, Profile, Research) Chief Executive Howard Stringer said on Monday after a briefing at the show. "So it's too soon for us to be pessimistic, but I read the papers."
 

Monday, January 7, 2008

Yahoo CEO stakes out mobile phone market strategy

(Reuters) - Yahoo Inc's Jerry Yang will seek on Monday to demonstrate in his first major speech since taking over as chief executive in June the inroads the company is making putting Web services on mobile phones.

In a speech at the Consumer Electronics Show, an industry agenda-setting conference taking place in Las Vegas this week, the Yahoo co-founder will highlight a series of enhancements the company is making to its Internet services to optimize them to run on hundreds of millions of existing mobile phones.

Marco Boerries, the executive in charge of Yahoo's division supplying Web services for phones, TVs and other devices beyond PCs, told Reuters in an interview ahead of Yang's speech that Yahoo wants to play a big role in these new markets while staying true to its roots as an Internet services pioneer.

Sallie Mae Names Terracciano Chairman; Lord Still CEO

(Bloomberg) -- SLM Corp., the biggest U.S. educational lender, named Anthony P. Terracciano chairman, succeeding Albert L. Lord.

Lord will be vice chairman of the board and remains chief executive officer, Reston, Virginia-based SLM, known as Sallie Mae, said today in a Business Wire statement. John F. Remondi was named vice chairman and chief financial officer.

Lord, 62, served as Sallie Mae's CEO from 1997 to 2005 and resumed the post on Dec. 14, after the collapse of a proposed $25.3 billion takeover by investors including J.C. Flowers & Co.

Sallie Mae has slumped 40 percent in New York Stock Exchange trading since Dec. 13, as Lord has completed a sale of $2.9 billion in shares to pay for stock buybacks and to help improve the company's credit rating.
 

U.S. Stocks Rise for First Time in 2008; JPMorgan, Celgene Gain

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks advanced for the first time this year on speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to prevent the world's largest economy from sinking into recession.

Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., the biggest U.S. banks, climbed. Celgene Corp., a maker of cancer treatments, rose after saying profit will jump 45 percent in 2008. Microsoft Corp. gained after Chairman Bill Gates said the world's biggest software maker shipped 100 million copies of its Windows Vista operating system.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index advanced 5.35, or 0.4 percent, to 1,416.98 as of 9:36 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 45.11, or 0.4 percent, to 12,845.29. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 5.01, or 0.2 percent, to 2,509.66.
 

Sunday, January 6, 2008

Ford Plans to Introduce More Fuel-Efficient Engine in 2009

(Bloomberg) -- Ford Motor Co., the second-largest U.S.-based automaker, plans to introduce a new, more fuel- efficient engine as the company tries to halt a sales slide in its home market.

Ford says the EcoBoost engine can improve mileage by as much as 20 percent. The new engine uses turbocharging, which forces air through it. The company says the EcoBoost engine can be smaller and lighter without sacrificing power.

``Customers do want better fuel economy,'' Derrick Kuzak, Ford's product-development chief, told reporters during a Dec. 11 briefing at a company facility in Dearborn, Michigan. ``We need to do it to gain share and volume.''

Ford, which is also based in Dearborn, was passed by Toyota Motor Corp. in 2007 for the No. 2 spot in U.S. sales. Ford had held the position since 1931 and hasn't been third or smaller in U.S. sales since 1905. The company has had 12 consecutive years of declining U.S. market share.
 

US STOCKS-Market sinks as jobs data stirs recession fears

(Reuters) - U.S. stocks tumbled on Friday, dragging the Dow to its worst three-day start to a year since the Great Depression, as a sharp rise in the unemployment rate heightened fears the economy is heading into a recession.

Technology shares were the worst performer in a broad-based decline after chip maker Intel Corp skidded 8.1 percent on concerns that businesses are unlikely to upgrade computer equipment in the face of a slowdown.

The Nasdaq fell 3.77 percent, bringing the index to its worst three-day kick-off to a new year since it was created in 1971.

The U.S. Labor Department reported job creation nearly ground to a halt in December and unemployment rose to a two-year high of 5 percent.

"The payroll numbers are showing that we don't have the jobs, and if you don't have job income you don't have consumers doing any spending," said Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co. of Springfield, New Jersey. "I don't think there's much question we're in a recession now."
 

Friday, January 4, 2008

U.S. Stocks Fall After Job Growth Misses Forecast; Apple Drops

(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. stock market got off to its worst start since 2000 after government reports on jobs and manufacturing added to concern the economy will sink into recession.
Apple Inc., maker of the iPod music player, fell the most since April 2005 and was the biggest drag on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. Apple declined after Intel Corp., the largest chipmaker, was downgraded by JPMorgan Chase & Co. Alcoa Inc., Home Depot Inc. and Hewlett-Packard Co. led the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its third retreat in four days.
 

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Consumers late payers on most loans since recession

(Reuters) - Americans are falling further behind on consumer loans, with late payments rising to the highest level since the nation's last recession in 2001, data released Thursday show.

In its quarterly study of consumer borrowing, the American Bankers Association said the percentage of loans at least 30 days past due rose to 2.44 percent in the July-to-September period from 2.27 percent in the previous quarter.

The delinquency rate, which covers eight loan categories, was the highest since a 2.51 percent rate in the second quarter of 2001. Late payments on some types of loans rose to levels not seen since the 1990s.

The ABA attributed some of the summer increase to rising oil prices and the inability of thousands of homeowners to keep up with mortgage payments.
 

Oil majors' winnings from $100/barrel seen limited

(Reuters) - Crude prices at a $100/barrel should boost major international oil companies' profits, but increasing competition from governments and suppliers for a bigger share of the bonanza will cap their gains.

Shares in European oil companies opened higher on Thursday after U.S. crude hit a record $100/barrel on Wednesday.

The DJ Stoxx European oil and gas sector index was up 1.9 percent at 8:40 a.m. EST on Thursday, echoing a smaller rise across the U.S. oil industry on Wednesday.
 

Tata in Talks to Buy Ford's Jaguar, Land Rover Units

(Bloomberg) --Ford Motor Co. selected Tata Motors Ltd. as the preferred bidder for Jaguar and Land Rover, putting India's largest truckmaker in a position to take over two of the best-known luxury auto brands.

Tata and the U.S. automaker ``will proceed with further substantive discussions,'' Ford Executive Vice President Lewis Booth said in a statement today. ``There is still a considerable amount of work to do.''

Buying the iconic British brands would give Mumbai-based Tata a presence outside Asia and provide access to new technology. A sale would allow Ford, the world's third-largest automaker, to focus on revamping its North American operations, the biggest cause of a record $12.6 billion loss in 2006.

``Tata gains an entry into the prestige market, although the snob factor says an Indian Jaguar will be a tough sell,'' said Stephen Pope, chief global markets strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald in London. Ford, of Dearborn, Michigan, may get 1 billion pounds ($1.98 billion) from a sale, he estimated.

The talks comes less than a year after the 139-year-old Tata group, led by Harvard-educated Ratan Tata, bought steelmaker Corus Group Plc. for $12.9 billion. That made Tata Steel Ltd. one of the world's top 10 steel producers.
 

U.S. Stocks Rise on Factory Report; Exxon Mobil, Monsanto Gain

(Bloomberg) - U.S. stocks rose, led by oil companies, after a government report showed orders to petroleum refiners climbed by the most in two years.

Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp., the largest U.S. energy producers, gained after the Commerce Department said a 16 percent jump in demand at refiners helped boost factory orders by three times the forecast rate. Monsanto Co., the largest seed maker, led commodity companies to the biggest gain in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index after profit topped analysts' estimates.

The S&P 500 added 4.97, or 0.3 percent, to 1,452.13 as of 11:13 a.m. in New York, following its worst decline in two weeks yesterday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 52.76, or 0.4 percent, to 13,096.72. The Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 1.24, or 0.1 percent, to 2,610.87.

Orders to U.S. factories rose 1.5 percent in November, the most in four months, and were higher in October than first reported, according to the Commerce Department. A report from ADP Employer Services showed companies in the U.S. added 40,000 jobs in December, more than projected. The reports helped assuage concern the U.S. economy is headed for a recession.

``It is a relief to have factory orders not only increase threefold greater than expected but also have a revision up of last month,'' said Thomas Sowanick, who helps manage $10 billion as chief investment officer at Clearbrook Financial LLC in Princeton, New Jersey.
 

If Soy Is Expensive, Why Does Goldman Say Nevermind?

(Bloomberg) - Selling soybeans at their highest prices in three decades and corn while it flirts with the 1996 peak is a money-losing trade, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG. Corn at $4.55 a bushel is ``cheap,'' Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank says.

Goldman Sachs in New York expects soybeans to rise 29 percent in 2008, the best investment in commodities. Investors who followed the banks' advice and bought raw materials last year profited as the Standard & Poor's GSCI Index advanced 33 percent, beating the 3.5 percent gain in the S&P 500 Index and the 9.1 percent return from U.S. Treasuries, according to data compiled by Merrill Lynch & Co.

Read more at Bloomberg

Copper up on bargain hunting

(Reuters) - Copper gained on Wednesday with buyers returning to the market after selling in the last days of 2007, but doubts about global economic growth dampened sentiment, analysts said.

"There is a bit of bargain hunting... volumes are much better than New Year's Eve but the markets are still pretty subdued," analyst Leon Westgate at Standard Bank said.

Read more at Reuters Africa